BCREA forecasts 9% sales rebound in Metro Vancouver, Fraser Valley in 2027

Home sales in Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley are forecast to rebound by roughly nine per cent in 2027, while average prices rise far more slowly, according to the B.C. Real Estate Association's 2026 fourth quarter housing forecast, Daily Hive Vancouver reported.

The Greater Vancouver Realtors area, which includes Vancouver, Burnaby and Richmond, is projected to reach 25,000 sales, up 8.7 per cent. Its average price would rise 2.2 per cent to $1.25 million, just 0.8 per cent above 2025. In the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board's territory, which covers Surrey, Langley, White Rock and North Delta, sales are forecast to hit 12,000, up 9.1 per cent, with the average price at $980,000, still about 3.1 per cent below 2025. Together, the two boards would account for 3,000 of the province's 4,815 additional sales.

Chief economist Brendon Ogmundson said economic difficulties are making potential buyers reluctant to enter the market. He attributed the expected recovery to fading impacts of new U.S. tariffs and declining fixed mortgage rates. Active listings are near their highest level since 2015, and a large inventory of new homes is adding pressure on prices.

The federal budget could help: a pathway to permanent residency for up to 200,000 temporary residents by the end of 2027 may give some households more confidence to buy.

The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.5 per cent on Oct. 28, its first increase since July 2023. Another increase at its Dec. 9 decision could raise variable mortgage costs.