Seven final polls put B.C. Conservatives ahead of NDP as voters head to the ballot box

Seven final public opinion surveys released just before B.C.'s provincial election all found the Conservatives ahead of the BC NDP, according to a Daily Hive Vancouver roundup of the results.

Among decided voters, including leaners where reported, the Conservative lead ranged from four to 5.9 percentage points. The NDP is led by Premier David Eby. On election day, Saturday, Oct. 24, voting stations run from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m.

What each pollster found

The seven companies are Research Co., Ipsos, Mainstreet Research, Leger, Pallas Data, Forum Research and Pollara. Daily Hive reported these results:

• Research Co.: Conservatives 44 per cent, BC NDP 40, BC Greens 10.
• Ipsos: Conservatives 44, BC NDP 39, BC Greens 13.
• Mainstreet Research: Conservatives 42.9, BC NDP 37.2, BC Greens 17.
• Leger: Conservatives 44, BC NDP 40, BC Greens 13.
• Pallas Data: Conservatives 45.2, BC NDP 39.3, BC Greens 12. This was the largest Conservative lead of the seven surveys.
• Forum Research: Conservatives 44.5, BC NDP 39.5, BC Greens 12.
• Pollara: Conservatives 42, BC NDP 37, BC Greens 13, among decided voters.

Leger also found six per cent of respondents undecided. That was down from 12 per cent in its previous survey during the campaign.

Green support differs

Support for the BC Greens, led by Emily Lowan, differed considerably across the surveys. It ranged from 10 per cent to 17 per cent. Mainstreet's 17 per cent was the highest Green figure of the seven.

Why a lead isn't a seat count

Province-wide support in surveys does not translate directly into seats. B.C. has 93 provincial ridings, so a party needs at least 47 for a majority. Before Eby called the snap election, the NDP government held a slim majority of 47 seats.

Ipsos, Mainstreet and Forum Research explicitly stated that, based on their findings, the Conservatives could potentially form a majority government.

Regional findings

In Metro Vancouver, Ipsos and Research Co. both found a four-point Conservative lead. Daily Hive described the region as closely contested. On Vancouver Island, both pollsters found the BC NDP at 46 per cent.

Ipsos also found that 53 per cent of respondents believed another provincial party should take over.

Different methods

According to Daily Hive, the seven surveys used very different methods and respondent groups. Research Co. surveyed 802 likely voters online from Oct. 21 to 23, including 722 decided voters. Ipsos surveyed 1,260 adult British Columbians from Oct. 20 to 22, online and by telephone.

What to know

• Voting stations are open from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Saturday, Oct. 24.
• A party needs 47 of 93 seats for a majority.
• Province-wide support in surveys does not translate directly into seats.